New Keynesian Liquidity Trap and Conventional Fiscal Stance: An Estimated DSGE Model

Authors

  • Olatunji Abdul Shobande University of Aberdeen
  • Oladimeji Tomiwa Shodipe Eastern Illinois University

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.2478/eb-2019-0011

Keywords:

Fiscal Policy, Liquidity Trap, Bayesian, DSGE Model

Abstract

The study investigates the effect of New Keynesian liquidity trap on fiscal stance in the United States, United Kingdom and Japan economies. We developed our DSGE model in the context of an optimal and persistent interactive fiscal policy, which allows us to track the transmission channel through which shocks are distributed among real economic variables. The evidence suggests that zero lower bound mitigates the ability of monetary policy to absorb the effect of exogenous shock on the macroeconomic variables while expansionary fiscal policy was able to absorb the shock persistence transmitted from the nominal interest rate.

References

Abel, A. B. (1975). A Comparison of three Control Algorithms Applied to Monetarist-Fiscal Debate. Annal of Economic and Social Measurement, 1(3), 259–290.

Adam, K. (2011). Government Debt and Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy. European Economic Review, 55(1), 57–74. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2010.11.003

Afonso, A., & Jalles, J. T. (2017). Fiscal Episodes and Market Power. Open Economies Review, 28(2), 233–250. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-016-9419-7

Ashihara, A., & Kameda, K. (2018). Is Fiscal Expansion More Effective in a Financial Crisis? Applied Economics Letters, 25(2), 111–114. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2017.1299098

Azariadis, C. (2018). Riddles and Models: A Review Essay on Michel De Vroey’s A History of Macroeconomics from Keynes to Lucas and Beyond. Journal of Economic Literature, 56(4), 1538–1576. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.20181439

Barro, R. J. (1980). A Capital Market in an Equilibrium Business Cycle Model. Econometrica, 48(6), 1393. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912814

Barro, R. J. (1981). Output Effects of Government Purchases. Journal of Political Economy, 89(6), 1086–1120. https://doi.org/10.1086/261024

Barro, R. J., & Gordon, D. B. (1983). Rules, Discretion and Reputation in a Model of Moneatry Policy. NBER Working Paper 1079. https://doi.org/10.3386/w1079

Baxter, B. M., & King, R. G. (1993). Fiscal Policy in General Equilibrium. The American Economic Review, 83(3), 315–334.

Benchimol, J. (2015). Money in the Production Function: A New Keynesian DSGE Perspective. Southern Economic Journal, 82(1), 152–184. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2328135

Bhattarai, K., & Trzeciakiewicz, D. (2017). Macroeconomic Impacts of Fiscal Policy Shocks in the UK: A DSGE analysis. Economic Modelling, 61, 321–338. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.10.012

Blanchard, O. (2018). On the Future of Macroeconomic Models. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 34(1–2), 43–54. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grx045

Blanchard, O. J., Erceg, C. J., & Lindé, J. (2015). Jump-Starting the Euro Area Recovery: Would a Rise in Core Fiscal Spending Help the Periphery? Riksbank Research Paper Series No. 128. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2635382

Boldrin, B. M., Christiano, L. J., & Fisher, J. D. M. (2001). Habit Persistence, Asset Returns, and the Business Cycle. The American Economic Review, 91(1), 149–166. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.91.1.149

Boubaker, S., Nguyen, D. K., & Paltalidis, N. (2018). Fiscal Policy Interventions at the Zero Lower Bound. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 93, 297–314. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2018.01.048

Buera, F., & Nicolini, J. P. (2014). Liquidity Traps and Monetary Policy: Managing a Credit Crunch. FRB of Chicago Working Paper No. 2014-14. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2537452

Calvo, G. A. (1983). Staggered Prices in a Utility-Maximizing Framework. Journal of Monetary Economics, 12(3), 383–398. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(83)90060-0

Cars, H., & Lustenhouwer, J. (2017). Managing Unanchored, Heterogeneous Expectations and Liquidity Traps. BERG Working Paper Series, No. 131, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group (BERG), Bamberg, 1–44.

Catalano, M., & Pezzolla, E. (2017). The Italian Labor Market Reform : An Evaluation of the Jobs Act Using the Prometeia DSGE Model. Italian Economic Journal, 3(2), 209–238. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40797-017-0057-z

Christiano, L., Eichenbaum, M., & Rebelo, S., (2011). When Is the Government Spending Multiplier Large ? Journal of Political Economy, 119(1), 78–121. https://doi.org/10.1086/659312

Christiano, L. J., Eichenbaum, M. S., & Trabandt, M. (2016). Unemployment and Business Cycles. Econometrica, 84(4), 1523–1569. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA11776

Christiano, L. J., Eichenbaum, M. S., & Trabandt, M. (2018). On DSGE Models. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 32(3), 113–140. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.32.3.113

Christiano, L. J., Trabandt, M., & Walentin, K. (2011). DSGE Models for Monetary Policy Analysis. Handbook of Monetary Economics, 3, 285–367. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-444-53238-1.00007-7

Clarida, R., Gali, J., & Gertler, M. (1998). Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 6442. https://doi.org/10.3386/w6442

Cochrane, J. H. (2005). Money as Stock. Journal of Monetary Economics, 52(3), 501–528. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2004.07.004

Cochrane, J. H. (2011). Determinacy and Identification with Taylor Rules. Journal of Political Economy, 119(3), 565–610. https://doi.org/10.1086/660817

Cochrane, J. H. (2014). Monetary Policy with Interest on Reserves. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 49, 74–108. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2014.09.003

Cochrane, J. H. (2017). The New-Keynesian Liquidity Trap. Journal of Monetary Economics, 92, 47–63. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2017.09.003

Cochrane, J. H. (2018). Stepping on a Rake : The Fiscal Theory of Monetary Policy. European Economic Review, 101, 354–375. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2017.10.011

Diniz, A. (2018). Effects of Fiscal Consolidations in Latin America. IMF Economic Review, 66(4), 694–731. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-018-0069-1

Drautzburg, T., & Uhlig, H. (2015). Fiscal Stimulus and Distortionary Taxation. Review of Economic Dynamics, 18(4), 894–920. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2015.09.003

Falagiarda, M., & Saia, A. (2017). Credit, Endogenous Collateral and Risky Assets: A DSGE Model. International Review of Economics and Finance, 49, 125–148. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2017.01.025

Farmer, R. E. A., Khramov, V., & Nicolò, G. (2015). Solving and estimating Indeterminate DSGE Models. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 54, 17–36. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2015.02.012

Förster, B., & Hayo, B. (2018). Monetary and Fiscal Policy in Times of Crisis: A New Keynesian Perspective in Continuous Time. Manchester School, 86(1), 21–48. https://doi.org/10.1111/manc.12173

Gelain, P., Iskrev, N., Lansing, K. J., & Mendicino, C. (2019). Inflation Dynamics and Adaptive Expectations in an Estimated DSGE Model. Journal of Macroeconomics, 59, 258–277. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2018.12.002

Gerke, R., Jonsson, M., Kliem, M., Kolasa, M., Lafourcade, P., Locarno, A., Makarski, K., McAdam, P. (2013). Assessing Macro-Financial Linkages: A Model Comparison Exercise. Economic Modelling, 31, 253–264. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.10.019

Buss, G. (2015). Financial Frictions in a DSGE Model for Latvia. Dynare Working Papers Series, Working paper No. 42.

Gobbi, A., & Grazzini, J. (2019). A Basic New Keynesian DSGE Model With Dispersed Information: An Agent-Based Approach. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 157, 101–116. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2017.12.015

Hur, J., & Rhee, W. (2019). Multipliers of Expected vs Unexpected Fiscal Shocks: The Case of Korea. Economic Modelling, (3 June 2019). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.05.021

Iwata, Y. (2009). Fiscal Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model of the Japanese Economy: Do Non-Ricardian Households Explain All? Social ESRI Discussion PaperResearch, (216), 2–33. Retrieved from http://www.esri.go.jp/jp/archive/e_dis/e_dis220/e_dis216a.pdf

Iwata, Y. (2013). Two fiscal Policy Puzzles Revisited : New Evidence and an Explanation. Journal of International Money and Finance, 33, 188–207. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2012.11.015

Jiang, W. (2019). Optimal Taxation Under Equilibrium Unemployment and Economic Profits. The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 19(1), 1–21. https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2017-0226

Jump, R. C., & Levine, P. (2019). Behavioural New Keynesian Models. Journal of Macroeconomics, 59, 59–77. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2018.11.002

Kataryniuk, I., & Vallés, J. (2018). Fiscal Consolidation after the Great Recession: The Role of Composition. Oxford Economic Papers, 70(2), 563–585. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpx032

Lorenzoni, G., & Werning, I. (2013). Slow Moving Debt Crises. NBER Working Paper No. 19228, 1–32. https://doi.org/10.3386/w19228

Mankiw, N. G., & Reis, R. (2018). Friedman’s Presidential Address in the Evolution of Macroeconomic Thought. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 32(1), 81–96. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.32.1.81

Miyamoto, W., Nguyen, T. L., & Sergeyev, D. (2016). Government Spending Multipliers Under the Zero Lower Bound : Evidence from Japan (October 29, 2016). Available: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2865510

Nakamichi, T. (2012). Decisive Monetary Easing Policy to Beat Deflation. Bank of Japan; NAICS: 521110, Don Jones Institutional News, 22, Oct 2012.

Nasir, M. A., Yago, M., Soliman, A. M., & Wu, J. (2016). Financial stability, wealth effects and Optimal Macroeconomic Policy Combination in the United Kingdom: A New-Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Framework. Cogent Economics & Finance, 4, 1–25. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2015.1136098

Patrick, F., Moura, A., & Pierrard, O. (2019). Shadow Banking and Financial Regulation : A Small-Scale DSGE Perspective. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 101, 130–144. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2019.02.001

Praščević, A., & Ješić, M. (2019). Modeling Macroeconomic Policymakers’ Interactions under Zero Lower Bound Environment: The New Keynesian Theoretical Approach. Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, 8(1), 5–38. https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2019-0001

Prota, F., & Grisorio, M. J. (2018). Public Expenditure in time of Crisis: are Italian Policymakers Choosing the Right Mix? Economia Politica, 35(2), 337–365. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40888-018-0124-4

Ramey, V. A. (2011). Can Government Purchases Stimulate the Economy ? Journal of Economic Literature, 49(3), 673–685. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.49.3.673

Ramey, V. A., & Zubairy, S. (2018). Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad : Evidence from US Historical Data. Journal of Political Economy, 126(2), 850–897. https://doi.org/10.1086/696277

Reis, R. (2018). Is something really wrong with macroeconomics? Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 34(1-2), 132–155. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grx053

Roch, F., & Uhlig, H. (2018). The Dynamics of Sovereign Debt Crises and Bailouts. Journal of International Economics, 114, 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2018.05.002

Schabert, A., & Bredemeier, C. (2015). Fiscal Policy, Interest Rate Spreads, and the Zero Lower Bound. Department of Economics University of Cologne Albertus-Magnus-Platz, D-50923 Köln, Germany, Working Paper Series, No. 80.

Shobande, O. (2019). Monetary Policy Spillover through Industrial Growth in Nigeria: A Time Series Analysis. Economics and Business, 33(1), 94–110. https://doi.org/10.2478/eb-2019-0007

Shobande, O. A. (2018). Modelling the Dynamics of Government Finance on Bond Market Return in Nigeria. Theoretical Economics Letters, 8, 3438–3443. https://doi.org/10.4236/tel.2018.815210

Uhlig, H. (2005). What are the Effects of Monetary Policy on Output? Results from an Agnostic Identification Procedure. Journal of Monetary Economics, 52(2), 381–419. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2004.05.007

Vines, D., & Wills, S. (2018). The Rebuilding Macroeconomic Theory Project: An

Analytical Assessment. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 34(1-2), 1–42. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grx062

Werning, I. (2015). Managing a Liquidity Trap. NBER Working Paper Series, 67(6), 14–21.

Woodford, M. (2007). Forecast Targeting as a Monetary Policy Strategy: Policy Rules in Practice. NBER Working paper 13716. https://doi.org/10.3386/w13716

Downloads

Published

30.09.2019

How to Cite

Shobande, O. A., & Shodipe, O. T. (2019). New Keynesian Liquidity Trap and Conventional Fiscal Stance: An Estimated DSGE Model. Economics and Business, 33, 152-169. https://doi.org/10.2478/eb-2019-0011