Economic Loss Estimation in the Context of Country’s Economy

Zaneta Simanaviciene, Oksana Palekiene, Illya Khadzhynov


The economic decline in the period of economic downturn affects social and economic development of the country’s regions. In this paper economic loss incurred is understand as amount of forgone income in the period of economic downturn. The presented methodology allows to objectively access economic losses and to identify which country or region suffered most from the economic crisis. The methodology presented in the paper is based on the dynamics of actual economic indicator - GDP change.


Regional development, economic crisis, economic loss, social and economic development indicators

Full Text:



Budrytė, A., Tursa, L. Valstybės skolos raida, rizika ir priimtinumo lygis. Pinigų studijos, 2002, Nr. 4, p. 20-37.

Burns, A., Mitchell, W. W. Measuring Business Cycles. National Bureau of Economic Research, 1946, New York: NBER. [Online]. Available: [Accessed: Aug. 26, 2013].

Demirguc-Kunt, A., Detragiache, E.. The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries. 1998, IMF Sta_ Papers, 45(1), pp. 81-109.

Demirguc-Kunt, A., Detragiache, E., Gupta, P. Inside the crisis: An empirical analysis of banking systems in distress. Journal of International Money and Finance, 2006, 25(5), 702-718.

Logan A. The United Kingdoms small banks crisis of the early 1990s: what were the leading indicators of failure?, 2001, Bank of England Working Paper 139.

Angkinand, A. P. Output Loss and Recovery from Banking and Currency Crises: Estimation Issues, manuscript, 2008.

Simonavičienė, A., Užkurytė, L. Pokyčiai darbo rinkoje ekonominio nuosmukio metu: Lietuvos atvejis. Ekonomika ir vadyba. 2009, 14, p. 940-946.

Borio, C., Kennedy, N., Prowse, S. D. Exploring aggregate asset price actuations across countries: measurement, determinants and monetary policy implications. 1994, BIS Economic Papers, 40, April.

Kindleberger. C., Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises, 1978, Palgrave Macmillan.

Beržinskienė, D. Model of Population Employment Estimation. Economics, 2005, 44(4), p. 43-49.

Frydl, E. The Length and Cost of Banking Crises. 1999, IMF Working Papers, 99/30.

Prichockytė, F., Vaitkevičius, T., Ruplienė, D., D. Lietuvos, Latvijos ir Estijos ekonomikos perkaitimo galimybių vertinimas. Ekonomikos ir vadybos aktualijos: septintoji studentų mokslinių darbų konferencija, 2007, Šiauliai: Šiaulių universiteto leidykla, p. 199-205.

F. Westermann, A. Tornell. Boom-Bust Cycles in Middle Income Countries: Facts and Explanation, IMF Staff Papers, 2002, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49 (Special i), pages 111-155.

Albaitytė, G. Iššūkiai mokesčių administravimui ekonomikos nuosmukio sąlygomis. Public Administration, 2009, 2 (22), p. 63-68.

Blümle, G., Goldschmidt, N. From economic stability to social order: The debate about business cycle theory in the 1920s and its relevance for the development of theories of social order by Lowe, Hayek and Eucken. European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, 2006, Nr. 13 (4), p. 543-570.

Gorton, G. Banking Panics and Business Cycles, Oxford Economic Papers, 1988, 40 pp. 221-55.

Kaminsky, G., Reinhart, C. The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems." American Economic Review, 1999, 89(3), pp. 473-500.

IMF (2008), Perspectives of World Economic Development. Report. April, 2008.

Impact of the current economic and financial crisis on potencial output. Occasional Papers 49, June 2009. Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs. European Economy. 87 p.

Aziz, J., Francesco, C., Ranil, S. Currency Crises: In Search of Common Elements. 2000, IMF Working Papers 00/67.

Lithuanian economic statistics and indicators. [Online]. Available: [Accessed: Sept. 14, 2013].

Bordo, M., Eichengreen, B., Klingebiel, D. and Martinez-Peria, M. S. Is the crisis problem growing more severe?, Economic Policy, Vol. 16, Issue 32, pages 51-82, April 2001. [Online]. Available: [Accessed: Aug. 28, 2013].

Dapkus, M., Romikaitytė, B. Verslo ciklai: amortizacijos laikotarpio aspektas. Organizacijų vadyba: sisteminiai tyrimai, 2006, 39, p. 53-65.

Jasienė, M., Čapskas, G.. Palūkanų normų kaitos ir jos veiksnių tyrimas Lietuvoje 1994-2006 m. Verslas: teorija ir praktika, 2008, 9 (1), p. 33-44.

Sicherl, P., Cirjakovićm, J., Remec, M. "S-time-distance perspective: providing new insights of the current crisis from BTS and GDP data", 30th CIRET Conference, New York, October 2010. [Online]. Available: conferences/newyork_2010/papers/upload/p_43-856523.pdf. [Accessed: Sept. 4, 2013].

Cecchetti, S. G., Kohler, M., Upper, C. Financial Crises and Economic Activity, NBER Working Papers 15379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 2009, August. [Online]. Available: [Accessed: Sept. 2, 2013].

Rötheli, T. F.. Business Forecasting and the Development of Business Cycle Theory. History of Political Economy, 2007, Nr. 39 (3), p. 481-510.

Blažytė, V., Norkuvienė, A. Nacionalinio biudžeto pajamų kitimo tendencijos. Ekonomikos ir vadybos aktualijos: septintoji studentų mokslinių darbų konferencija, 2007, Šiauliai: Šiaulių universiteto leidykla, p. 45-54.

Pukelienė, V., Glinskienė, R., Beržinskienė, D. Darbo jėgos migracija: globalinis aspektas. Economics: Systematic Research. 2007, 1 (2), p. 49-64.

World Economic Outlook (WEO) data (Statistics of the Ukraine), IMF. [Online]. Available:

[Accessed: Sept. 14, 2013].

DOI: 10.7250/eb.2014.011


  • There are currently no refbacks.

Copyright (c)